Recalibration of the delirium prediction model
Published Date: 19th July 2016
Publication Authors: Jones C
Purpose
Recalibration and determining discriminative power, internationally, of the existing delirium prediction model (PRE-DELIRIC) for intensive care patients.
Methods
A prospective multicenter cohort study was performed in eight intensive care units (ICUs) in six countries. The ten predictors (age, APACHE-II, urgent and admission category, infection, coma, sedation, morphine use, urea level, metabolic acidosis) were collected within 24 h after ICU admission. The confusion assessment method for the intensive care unit (CAM-ICU) was used to identify ICU delirium. CAM-ICU screening compliance and inter-rater reliability measurements were used to secure the quality of the data.
Results
A total of 2,852 adult ICU patients were screened of which 1,824 (64 %) were eligible for the study. Main reasons for exclusion were length of stay <1 day (19.1 %) and sustained coma (4.1 %). CAM-ICU compliance was mean (SD) 82 ± 16 % and inter-rater reliability 0.87 ± 0.17. The median delirium incidence was 22.5 % (IQR 12.8–36.6 %). Although the incidence of all ten predictors differed significantly between centers, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of the eight participating centers remained good: 0.77 (95 % CI 0.74–0.79). The linear predictor and intercept of the prediction rule were adjusted and resulted in improved re-calibration of the PRE-DELIRIC model.
Conclusions
In this multinational study, we recalibrated the PRE-DELIRIC model. Despite differences in the incidence of predictors between the centers in the different countries, the performance of the PRE-DELIRIC-model remained good. Following validation of the PRE-DELIRIC model, it may facilitate implementation of strategies to prevent delirium and aid improvements in delirium management of ICU patients.
Van Den Boogaard, M; Jones, C et al. (2014). Recalibration of the delirium prediction model for ICU patients (PRE-DELIRIC): A multinational observational . Intensive Care Medicine. 40 (3), 361-69
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